Pacers vs Thunder Preview (10/23/25)

Odon Simoneaux
5 days ago
2 min read

The 2025-26 NBA season tips off in Indianapolis with plenty of drama. The Indiana Pacers host the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder in a rematch of last June’s Finals. Both rosters look different from the series we just watched, and both coaches are dealing with significant early injuries. Let’s break it all down.

Injury Report

Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton: out for the season (Achilles)
T.J. McConnell: out (hamstring)
Kam Jones: out (back)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams: out (wrist)
Alex Caruso: out (concussion)
Isaiah Joe: out (knee)
Nikola Topić: out (groin)
Kenrich Williams: out (knee)
Thomas Sorber: out for the year (knee)
Luguentz Dort: questionable (ankle)
Cason Wallace: questionable (knee)

Rotation Outlook

For Indiana, the starting group should revolve around Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, and Pascal Siakam, with the center minutes shared between Isaiah Jackson, Jay Huff, James Wiseman, and Tony Bradley. The absence of Myles Turner, now in Milwaukee, leaves Carlisle with a committee approach at the rim.

For Oklahoma City, it’s still the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren show. Dort’s availability is a swing factor: with him, OKC gains their best point-of-attack defender; without him, more minutes fall to Aaron Wiggins and Wallace.

Scheme Breakdown

Pacers Offense: Without Haliburton’s pick and roll orchestration, Indiana will rely on more dribble handoffs, pistol actions, and mid post isolations for Siakam. Expect Mathurin and Nesmith to be constant cutters, while Nembhard takes on heavier ball handling responsibility.

Pacers Defense: The Pacers will toggle between drop coverage when Jackson or Wiseman are in and more switching when Siakam or Toppin play small ball minutes. The key question: can they hold their own on the glass without Turner?

Thunder Offense: Mark Daigneault keeps the same five out attack. Holmgren stretches defenses thin, giving SGA space to work in empty side pick and rolls and isolations. If Dort is healthy, he will screen and short roll; if not, expect more playmaking from Wiggins. OKC thrives by avoiding turnovers and punishing help with kick outs.

Thunder Defense: The Thunder rely on switching and rim protection from Holmgren. Without Caruso and maybe Dort, they may show more zone looks to preserve energy. Still, this unit was elite in defensive habits last year, and the core principles remain intact.

Key Battlegrounds

Rebounding: Indiana has to survive on the defensive glass. If OKC’s long wings crash from the corners, second chance points will pile up.
SGA Matchups: The Pacers need to crowd his drives without over committing, or else open threes will burn them.
Siakam’s Efficiency: Can he punish mismatches without stalling the offense? Quick decisions will make or break Indiana’s half court flow.
Thunder Perimeter Depth: If Dort sits, Indiana’s guards get a friendlier runway. If he plays, OKC’s defense gains teeth.

Prediction

Oklahoma City’s championship core still has more stability, even with injuries. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren provide a high floor, while Indiana is navigating life without its two way centerpiece. For the Pacers to win, they must hit threes at volume and rebound above expectations.

Give me OKC -7.5.